Conditions monitor · not a forecast

Cassandra

Is the AI build-out overheating? A transparent, real-data read of the AI / semiconductor cycle across value, fundamentals, supply chain and the macro / Fed backdrop — a composite, not a single trend line. High = stretched and fragile.

49.2

elevated

6 of 6 panels live · weights valuation 22% · fundamentals 18% · supplychain 14% · macro 22% · crowding 12% · adoption 12%

CAPE 42.15 — 99.3th percentile (richer only at the 2000 peak)Market breadth at an extreme — equal-weight at the 3.2th percentile (narrowest in years)NVDA = 45.2% of the semis complex — single-name dominanceSemis fundamentals strong — PEG 0.91, margins +10.7pp (cushions valuation)Chinese models = 58.8% of OpenRouter token volume · 42.9% of calls

01 / VALUATION · BROAD MARKET

CAPE & risk premium

94.8/100

Cyclically-adjusted earnings — immune to single-year EPS, ranked vs 155 years. A negative risk premium means equities yield less than Treasuries.

Shiller CAPE42.15 · 99.3ᵖᶜᵗ

Equity risk premiumnullpp vs 10y null%

02 / FUNDAMENTALS · SEMICONDUCTORS

Earnings quality

7.6/100

The counterweight: do profits justify the price? PEG<1 = growth more than pays for the multiple; expanding margins cushion rich valuations. Low score = healthy.

Median PEG0.91

Operating margin Δ+10.7pp

Earnings growth160% YoY · ROE 40%

name	fwd P/E	PEG	Δmgn
NVDA	16.9	0.62	+16.5
AMD	30.2	1.1	+19
AVGO	18.6	0.44	+9.5
TSM	18.9	1.03	+10.7
ASML	29.4	2.22	+2.4
SMCI	6.9	0.91	+2.9
MU	6.1	0.14	+57

03 / SUPPLY CHAIN · BUILD-OUT

Capex & GPU rents

10.5/100

MSFT · GOOGL · AMZN · META capex (the AI build-out) and H100 rental prices. A parabolic ramp builds capacity ahead of demand; depressed rents signal oversupply.

Hyperscaler capex$116B · -67.6% YoY

H100 rent$2.99/gpu-hr

04 / MACRO & FED

Liquidity & risk appetite

61.8/100

Is the cycle being fuelled or squeezed? Low VIX & tight spreads = complacency; an inverted curve and tightening conditions are what end build-outs. FRED + CBOE, decades deep.

VIX15.96 · 38.2ᵖᶜᵗ

HY credit spreadnull% · nullᵖᶜᵗ

Yield curve 10y−2y—

Financial conditions—

05 / CROWDING & POSITIONING

Breadth & concentration

97.6/100

How narrow is the trade? A low equal-weight / cap-weight ratio means a handful of mega-caps hold up the index — thin breadth, the "who's left to buy" fragility. Orthogonal to VIX.

Equal-wt / cap-wt0.2888 · 3.2ᵖᶜᵗ

Semis vs market0.6757 · 98.7ᵖᶜᵗ

NVDA share of complex45.2%

06 / AI DEMAND · CHINA vs US

OpenRouter call share

1.8/100

Real inference traffic through OpenRouter — Chinese-origin models (DeepSeek, Qwen, GLM, Kimi…) vs US/West (GPT, Claude, Gemini…). China 58.8% of token volume · 42.9% of calls · 2026-08-19.

China 58.8% tokensUS/West 41.2%

deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-202	1684.9B
tencent/hy3-20260706	1216.3B
xiaomi/mimo-v2.5-20260422	1179.8B
openai/gpt-5.6-luna-20260709	806.8B
deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-202	790.4B

TRACK RECORD · TODAY vs HISTORY

Where today sits

Today vs decades of market history

CAPE (Shiller, 1871→)42.15 · 99.3ᵖᶜᵗ

VIX15.96 · 38.2ᵖᶜᵗ

Equal-wt / cap-wt (23y)0.2888 · 3.2ᵖᶜᵗ

Semis vs market0.6757 · 98.7ᵖᶜᵗ

Cassandra’s own daily record

Tracked since 2026-06-23 · 59 days · today 49.2 (elevated) · range 46.8–79.2 · mid-range

category	today	Δ since start
Valuation	94.8	+4.0
Fundamentals	7.6	-7.4
Supply chain	10.5	-61.1
Macro & Fed	61.8	+10.1
Crowding	97.6	-1.4
AI demand	1.8	+1.8

What this is — and what it isn't

Cassandra is a transparent conditions monitor, not a crash predictor. It blends six real-data categories — valuation (Shiller CAPE & the Fed-model risk premium), fundamentals (semis margins, growth, PEG), supply chain (hyperscaler capex & GPU rents), macro / Fed (VIX, credit spreads, the yield curve, financial conditions), crowding (equal- vs cap-weight breadth, semis concentration) and AI demand — into one gauge. Each sub-score is ranked against real history or scored by a transparent, documented rule; weights are a judgement (valuation 22% · fundamentals 18% · supplychain 14% · macro 22% · crowding 12% · adoption 12%), not fitted. A category without enough data is shown as "building history" and excluded — never given a fabricated score.

AI-demand caveat: the China-vs-US panel is the OpenRouter daily call/token share — real inference traffic, by model origin (Chinese labs vs US/West), through one major router. It is a true usage cross-section but not all inference: it excludes first-party API traffic (direct OpenAI, Anthropic, Google) and self-hosted deployments. CAPE is a broad-market GAAP measure; the semis fundamentals are current snapshots with a multi-quarter margin trend.