Conditions monitor · not a forecast

Cassandra

Is the AI build-out overheating? A transparent, real-data read of the AI / semiconductor cycle across value, fundamentals, supply chain and the macro / Fed backdrop — a composite, not a single trend line. High = stretched and fragile.

48.1

elevated

6 of 6 panels live · weights valuation 22% · fundamentals 18% · supplychain 14% · macro 22% · crowding 12% · adoption 12%

CAPE 42.17 — 99.3th percentile (richer only at the 2000 peak)Equity risk premium -2.3pp — equities priced below TreasuriesHY credit spreads 2.63% — 1.4th percentile (peak complacency)Market breadth at an extreme — equal-weight at the 2.8th percentile (narrowest in years)NVDA = 45% of the semis complex — single-name dominanceSemis fundamentals strong — PEG 0.91, margins +10.7pp (cushions valuation)Chinese models = 63.3% of OpenRouter token volume · 45.6% of calls

01 / VALUATION · BROAD MARKET

CAPE & risk premium

91.8/100

Cyclically-adjusted earnings — immune to single-year EPS, ranked vs 155 years. A negative risk premium means equities yield less than Treasuries.

Shiller CAPE42.17 · 99.3ᵖᶜᵗ

Equity risk premium-2.3pp vs 10y 4.67%

02 / FUNDAMENTALS · SEMICONDUCTORS

Earnings quality

8.9/100

The counterweight: do profits justify the price? PEG<1 = growth more than pays for the multiple; expanding margins cushion rich valuations. Low score = healthy.

Median PEG0.91

Operating margin Δ+10.7pp

Earnings growth128% YoY · ROE 40%

name	fwd P/E	PEG	Δmgn
NVDA	14.2	0.59	+16.5
AMD	30.1	1.03	+19
AVGO	18.9	0.4	+9.5
TSM	19.2	1	+10.7
ASML	28.2	2.08	+2.4
SMCI	7	0.91	+2.9
MU	6	0.14	+57

03 / SUPPLY CHAIN · BUILD-OUT

Capex & GPU rents

13.1/100

MSFT · GOOGL · AMZN · META capex (the AI build-out) and H100 rental prices. A parabolic ramp builds capacity ahead of demand; depressed rents signal oversupply.

Hyperscaler capex$116B · -67.6% YoY

H100 rent$2.40/gpu-hr

04 / MACRO & FED

Liquidity & risk appetite

57.1/100

Is the cycle being fuelled or squeezed? Low VIX & tight spreads = complacency; an inverted curve and tightening conditions are what end build-outs. FRED + CBOE, decades deep.

VIX14.43 · 28.2ᵖᶜᵗ

HY credit spread2.63% · 1.4ᵖᶜᵗ

Yield curve 10y−2y+0.39

Financial conditions-0.57 · fed funds 3.63%

05 / CROWDING & POSITIONING

Breadth & concentration

97.6/100

How narrow is the trade? A low equal-weight / cap-weight ratio means a handful of mega-caps hold up the index — thin breadth, the "who's left to buy" fragility. Orthogonal to VIX.

Equal-wt / cap-wt0.2869 · 2.8ᵖᶜᵗ

Semis vs market0.6611 · 98.3ᵖᶜᵗ

NVDA share of complex45%

06 / AI DEMAND · CHINA vs US

OpenRouter call share

1.5/100

Real inference traffic through OpenRouter — Chinese-origin models (DeepSeek, Qwen, GLM, Kimi…) vs US/West (GPT, Claude, Gemini…). China 63.3% of token volume · 45.6% of calls · 2026-08-28.

China 63.3% tokensUS/West 36.7%

openai/gpt-5.6-luna-20260709	1700.5B
deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-202	1605.6B
xiaomi/mimo-v2.5-20260422	1578.1B
z-ai/glm-5.3-flash-20260826	1556.8B
tencent/hy3-20260706	963.0B

TRACK RECORD · TODAY vs HISTORY

Where today sits

Today vs decades of market history

CAPE (Shiller, 1871→)42.17 · 99.3ᵖᶜᵗ

Equity risk premium-2.3pp · 13.5ᵖᶜᵗ

VIX14.43 · 28.2ᵖᶜᵗ

HY credit spread2.63% · 1.4ᵖᶜᵗ

Equal-wt / cap-wt (23y)0.2869 · 2.8ᵖᶜᵗ

Semis vs market0.6611 · 98.3ᵖᶜᵗ

Cassandra’s own daily record

Tracked since 2026-06-23 · 68 days · today 48.1 (elevated) · range 46.8–79.2 · mid-range

category	today	Δ since start
Valuation	91.8	+1.0
Fundamentals	8.9	-6.1
Supply chain	13.1	-58.5
Macro & Fed	57.1	+5.4
Crowding	97.6	-1.4
AI demand	1.5	+1.5

What this is — and what it isn't

Cassandra is a transparent conditions monitor, not a crash predictor. It blends six real-data categories — valuation (Shiller CAPE & the Fed-model risk premium), fundamentals (semis margins, growth, PEG), supply chain (hyperscaler capex & GPU rents), macro / Fed (VIX, credit spreads, the yield curve, financial conditions), crowding (equal- vs cap-weight breadth, semis concentration) and AI demand — into one gauge. Each sub-score is ranked against real history or scored by a transparent, documented rule; weights are a judgement (valuation 22% · fundamentals 18% · supplychain 14% · macro 22% · crowding 12% · adoption 12%), not fitted. A category without enough data is shown as "building history" and excluded — never given a fabricated score.

AI-demand caveat: the China-vs-US panel is the OpenRouter daily call/token share — real inference traffic, by model origin (Chinese labs vs US/West), through one major router. It is a true usage cross-section but not all inference: it excludes first-party API traffic (direct OpenAI, Anthropic, Google) and self-hosted deployments. CAPE is a broad-market GAAP measure; the semis fundamentals are current snapshots with a multi-quarter margin trend.