Conditions monitor · not a forecast

Cassandra

Is the AI build-out overheating? A transparent, real-data read of the AI / semiconductor cycle across value, fundamentals, supply chain and the macro / Fed backdrop — a composite, not a single trend line. High = stretched and fragile.

43.3

elevated

6 of 6 panels live · weights valuation 22% · fundamentals 18% · supplychain 14% · macro 22% · crowding 12% · adoption 12%

CAPE 41.85 — 99.1th percentile (richer only at the 2000 peak)Equity risk premium -2.83pp — equities priced below TreasuriesMarket breadth at an extreme — equal-weight at the 0.7th percentile (narrowest in years)NVDA = 44.6% of the semis complex — single-name dominanceSemis fundamentals strong — PEG 0.61, margins +10.7pp (cushions valuation)Chinese models = 70.8% of OpenRouter token volume · 47.1% of calls

01 / VALUATION · BROAD MARKET

CAPE & risk premium

93.9/100

Cyclically-adjusted earnings — immune to single-year EPS, ranked vs 155 years. A negative risk premium means equities yield less than Treasuries.

Shiller CAPE41.85 · 99.1ᵖᶜᵗ

Equity risk premium-2.83pp vs 10y 5.22%

02 / FUNDAMENTALS · SEMICONDUCTORS

Earnings quality

6/100

The counterweight: do profits justify the price? PEG<1 = growth more than pays for the multiple; expanding margins cushion rich valuations. Low score = healthy.

Median PEG0.61

Operating margin Δ+10.7pp

Earnings growth160% YoY · ROE 44%

name	fwd P/E	PEG	Δmgn
NVDA	14.2	0.28	+5.4
AMD	37.8	0.61	+19
AVGO	18.3	0.36	+16.2
TSM	19.9	0.86	+10.7
ASML	29.9	1.11	+2.4
SMCI	7.5	0.91	+9.4
MU	4.8	0.16	+57

03 / SUPPLY CHAIN · BUILD-OUT

Capex & GPU rents

4/100

MSFT · GOOGL · AMZN · META capex (the AI build-out) and H100 rental prices. A parabolic ramp builds capacity ahead of demand; depressed rents signal oversupply.

Hyperscaler capex$116B · -67.6% YoY

H100 rent$2.81/gpu-hr · +40%/90d

04 / MACRO & FED

Liquidity & risk appetite

41.4/100

Is the cycle being fuelled or squeezed? Low VIX & tight spreads = complacency; an inverted curve and tightening conditions are what end build-outs. FRED + CBOE, decades deep.

VIX15.39 · 33.5ᵖᶜᵗ

HY credit spread3.15% · 61.6ᵖᶜᵗ

Yield curve 10y−2y+0.44

Financial conditions-0.49 · fed funds 3.88%

05 / CROWDING & POSITIONING

Breadth & concentration

98.9/100

How narrow is the trade? A low equal-weight / cap-weight ratio means a handful of mega-caps hold up the index — thin breadth, the "who's left to buy" fragility. Orthogonal to VIX.

Equal-wt / cap-wt0.274 · 0.7ᵖᶜᵗ

Semis vs market0.7002 · 98.4ᵖᶜᵗ

NVDA share of complex44.6%

06 / AI DEMAND · CHINA vs US

OpenRouter call share

0/100

Real inference traffic through OpenRouter — Chinese-origin models (DeepSeek, Qwen, GLM, Kimi…) vs US/West (GPT, Claude, Gemini…). China 70.8% of token volume · 47.1% of calls · 2026-10-12.

China 70.8% tokensUS/West 29.2%

deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-2	6021.4B
stepfun/step-5-preview-2026100	3249.0B
z-ai/glm-5.3-flash-20260826	2033.3B
xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-flash-2026092	1599.5B
nvidia/nemotron-3-ultra-550b-a	1146.4B

TRACK RECORD · TODAY vs HISTORY

Where today sits

Today vs decades of market history

CAPE (Shiller, 1871→)41.85 · 99.1ᵖᶜᵗ

Equity risk premium-2.83pp · 6.6ᵖᶜᵗ

VIX15.39 · 33.5ᵖᶜᵗ

HY credit spread3.15% · 61.6ᵖᶜᵗ

Equal-wt / cap-wt (23y)0.274 · 0.7ᵖᶜᵗ

Semis vs market0.7002 · 98.4ᵖᶜᵗ

Cassandra’s own daily record

Tracked since 2026-06-23 · 113 days · today 43.3 (elevated) · range 43.3–79.2 · lowest yet

category	today	Δ since start
Valuation	93.9	+3.1
Fundamentals	6	-9.0
Supply chain	4	-67.6
Macro & Fed	41.4	-10.3
Crowding	98.9	-0.1
AI demand	0	+0.0

What this is — and what it isn't

Cassandra is a transparent conditions monitor, not a crash predictor. It blends six real-data categories — valuation (Shiller CAPE & the Fed-model risk premium), fundamentals (semis margins, growth, PEG), supply chain (hyperscaler capex & GPU rents), macro / Fed (VIX, credit spreads, the yield curve, financial conditions), crowding (equal- vs cap-weight breadth, semis concentration) and AI demand — into one gauge. Each sub-score is ranked against real history or scored by a transparent, documented rule; weights are a judgement (valuation 22% · fundamentals 18% · supplychain 14% · macro 22% · crowding 12% · adoption 12%), not fitted. A category without enough data is shown as "building history" and excluded — never given a fabricated score.

AI-demand caveat: the China-vs-US panel is the OpenRouter daily call/token share — real inference traffic, by model origin (Chinese labs vs US/West), through one major router. It is a true usage cross-section but not all inference: it excludes first-party API traffic (direct OpenAI, Anthropic, Google) and self-hosted deployments. CAPE is a broad-market GAAP measure; the semis fundamentals are current snapshots with a multi-quarter margin trend.