Conditions monitor · not a forecast

Cassandra

Is the AI build-out overheating? A transparent, real-data read of the AI / semiconductor cycle across value, fundamentals, supply chain and the macro / Fed backdrop — a composite, not a single trend line. High = stretched and fragile.

49.4

elevated

6 of 6 panels live · weights valuation 22% · fundamentals 18% · supplychain 14% · macro 22% · crowding 12% · adoption 12%

CAPE 41.8 — 99.1th percentile (richer only at the 2000 peak)Equity risk premium -2.88pp — equities priced below TreasuriesMarket breadth at an extreme — equal-weight at the 0th percentile (narrowest in years)NVDA = 44.2% of the semis complex — single-name dominanceSemis fundamentals strong — PEG 0.66, margins +10.7pp (cushions valuation)Chinese models = 69.2% of OpenRouter token volume · 47.1% of calls

01 / VALUATION · BROAD MARKET

CAPE & risk premium

94.6/100

Cyclically-adjusted earnings — immune to single-year EPS, ranked vs 155 years. A negative risk premium means equities yield less than Treasuries.

Shiller CAPE41.8 · 99.1ᵖᶜᵗ

Equity risk premium-2.88pp vs 10y 5.27%

02 / FUNDAMENTALS · SEMICONDUCTORS

Earnings quality

6/100

The counterweight: do profits justify the price? PEG<1 = growth more than pays for the multiple; expanding margins cushion rich valuations. Low score = healthy.

Median PEG0.66

Operating margin Δ+10.7pp

Earnings growth160% YoY · ROE 44%

name	fwd P/E	PEG	Δmgn
NVDA	14.9	0.29	+5.4
AMD	41.1	0.66	+19
AVGO	19.4	0.37	+16.2
TSM	21.5	0.92	+10.7
ASML	31	1.14	+2.4
SMCI	8.4	0.91	+9.4
MU	5.3	0.16	+57

03 / SUPPLY CHAIN · BUILD-OUT

Capex & GPU rents

5.6/100

MSFT · GOOGL · AMZN · META capex (the AI build-out) and H100 rental prices. A parabolic ramp builds capacity ahead of demand; depressed rents signal oversupply.

Hyperscaler capex$116B · -67.6% YoY

H100 rent$2.78/gpu-hr · +39%/90d

04 / MACRO & FED

Liquidity & risk appetite

56.8/100

Is the cycle being fuelled or squeezed? Low VIX & tight spreads = complacency; an inverted curve and tightening conditions are what end build-outs. FRED + CBOE, decades deep.

VIX15.71 · 36.2ᵖᶜᵗ

HY credit spread3.03% · 50.2ᵖᶜᵗ

Yield curve 10y−2y—

Financial conditions—

05 / CROWDING & POSITIONING

Breadth & concentration

99.5/100

How narrow is the trade? A low equal-weight / cap-weight ratio means a handful of mega-caps hold up the index — thin breadth, the "who's left to buy" fragility. Orthogonal to VIX.

Equal-wt / cap-wt0.271 · 0ᵖᶜᵗ

Semis vs market0.7499 · 98.7ᵖᶜᵗ

NVDA share of complex44.2%

06 / AI DEMAND · CHINA vs US

OpenRouter call share

18.9/100

Real inference traffic through OpenRouter — Chinese-origin models (DeepSeek, Qwen, GLM, Kimi…) vs US/West (GPT, Claude, Gemini…). China 69.2% of token volume · 47.1% of calls · 2026-10-07.

China 69.2% tokensUS/West 30.8%

deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-2	7519.4B
z-ai/glm-5.3-flash-20260826	1724.3B
xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-flash-2026092	1681.4B
tencent/hy4-preview-20260827	1366.3B
openai/gpt-6-luna-20260922	1095.7B

TRACK RECORD · TODAY vs HISTORY

Where today sits

Today vs decades of market history

CAPE (Shiller, 1871→)41.8 · 99.1ᵖᶜᵗ

Equity risk premium-2.88pp · 5.5ᵖᶜᵗ

VIX15.71 · 36.2ᵖᶜᵗ

HY credit spread3.03% · 50.2ᵖᶜᵗ

Equal-wt / cap-wt (23y)0.271 · 0ᵖᶜᵗ

Semis vs market0.7499 · 98.7ᵖᶜᵗ

Cassandra’s own daily record

Tracked since 2026-06-23 · 108 days · today 49.4 (elevated) · range 46.3–79.2 · mid-range

category	today	Δ since start
Valuation	94.6	+3.8
Fundamentals	6	-9.0
Supply chain	5.6	-66.0
Macro & Fed	56.8	+5.1
Crowding	99.5	+0.5
AI demand	18.9	+18.9

What this is — and what it isn't

Cassandra is a transparent conditions monitor, not a crash predictor. It blends six real-data categories — valuation (Shiller CAPE & the Fed-model risk premium), fundamentals (semis margins, growth, PEG), supply chain (hyperscaler capex & GPU rents), macro / Fed (VIX, credit spreads, the yield curve, financial conditions), crowding (equal- vs cap-weight breadth, semis concentration) and AI demand — into one gauge. Each sub-score is ranked against real history or scored by a transparent, documented rule; weights are a judgement (valuation 22% · fundamentals 18% · supplychain 14% · macro 22% · crowding 12% · adoption 12%), not fitted. A category without enough data is shown as "building history" and excluded — never given a fabricated score.

AI-demand caveat: the China-vs-US panel is the OpenRouter daily call/token share — real inference traffic, by model origin (Chinese labs vs US/West), through one major router. It is a true usage cross-section but not all inference: it excludes first-party API traffic (direct OpenAI, Anthropic, Google) and self-hosted deployments. CAPE is a broad-market GAAP measure; the semis fundamentals are current snapshots with a multi-quarter margin trend.