Conditions monitor · not a forecast

Cassandra

Is the AI build-out overheating? A transparent, real-data read of the AI / semiconductor cycle across value, fundamentals, supply chain and the macro / Fed backdrop — a composite, not a single trend line. High = stretched and fragile.

52.4

elevated

6 of 6 panels live · weights valuation 22% · fundamentals 18% · supplychain 14% · macro 22% · crowding 12% · adoption 12%

CAPE 41.38 — 99.1th percentile (richer only at the 2000 peak)Equity risk premium -2.82pp — equities priced below TreasuriesMarket breadth at an extreme — equal-weight at the 0th percentile (narrowest in years)NVDA = 44.2% of the semis complex — single-name dominanceSemis fundamentals strong — PEG 0.64, margins +10.7pp (cushions valuation)Chinese models = 67.5% of OpenRouter token volume · 45.2% of calls

01 / VALUATION · BROAD MARKET

CAPE & risk premium

94.2/100

Cyclically-adjusted earnings — immune to single-year EPS, ranked vs 155 years. A negative risk premium means equities yield less than Treasuries.

Shiller CAPE41.38 · 99.1ᵖᶜᵗ

Equity risk premium-2.82pp vs 10y 5.24%

02 / FUNDAMENTALS · SEMICONDUCTORS

Earnings quality

6/100

The counterweight: do profits justify the price? PEG<1 = growth more than pays for the multiple; expanding margins cushion rich valuations. Low score = healthy.

Median PEG0.64

Operating margin Δ+10.7pp

Earnings growth160% YoY · ROE 44%

name	fwd P/E	PEG	Δmgn
NVDA	14.8	0.29	+5.4
AMD	40.6	0.64	+19
AVGO	18.3	0.35	+16.2
TSM	21.6	0.9	+10.7
ASML	32.1	1.15	+2.4
SMCI	8.2	0.91	+9.4
MU	5.2	0.16	+57

03 / SUPPLY CHAIN · BUILD-OUT

Capex & GPU rents

17/100

MSFT · GOOGL · AMZN · META capex (the AI build-out) and H100 rental prices. A parabolic ramp builds capacity ahead of demand; depressed rents signal oversupply.

Hyperscaler capex$116B · -67.6% YoY

H100 rent$2.36/gpu-hr · +18%/90d

04 / MACRO & FED

Liquidity & risk appetite

35.7/100

Is the cycle being fuelled or squeezed? Low VIX & tight spreads = complacency; an inverted curve and tightening conditions are what end build-outs. FRED + CBOE, decades deep.

VIX16.12 · 39.1ᵖᶜᵗ

HY credit spread3.24% · 74.3ᵖᶜᵗ

Yield curve 10y−2y+0.45

Financial conditions-0.55 · fed funds null%

05 / CROWDING & POSITIONING

Breadth & concentration

99.6/100

How narrow is the trade? A low equal-weight / cap-weight ratio means a handful of mega-caps hold up the index — thin breadth, the "who's left to buy" fragility. Orthogonal to VIX.

Equal-wt / cap-wt0.2725 · 0ᵖᶜᵗ

Semis vs market0.7652 · 99ᵖᶜᵗ

NVDA share of complex44.2%

06 / AI DEMAND · CHINA vs US

OpenRouter call share

69.9/100

Real inference traffic through OpenRouter — Chinese-origin models (DeepSeek, Qwen, GLM, Kimi…) vs US/West (GPT, Claude, Gemini…). China 67.5% of token volume · 45.2% of calls · 2026-10-04.

China 67.5% tokensUS/West 32.5%

deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-2	3420.1B
xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-flash-2026092	1319.2B
z-ai/glm-5.3-flash-20260826	1185.7B
tencent/hy4-preview-20260827	967.6B
nvidia/nemotron-3-ultra-550b-a	918.0B

TRACK RECORD · TODAY vs HISTORY

Where today sits

Today vs decades of market history

CAPE (Shiller, 1871→)41.38 · 99.1ᵖᶜᵗ

Equity risk premium-2.82pp · 6.8ᵖᶜᵗ

VIX16.12 · 39.1ᵖᶜᵗ

HY credit spread3.24% · 74.3ᵖᶜᵗ

Equal-wt / cap-wt (23y)0.2725 · 0ᵖᶜᵗ

Semis vs market0.7652 · 99ᵖᶜᵗ

Cassandra’s own daily record

Tracked since 2026-06-23 · 105 days · today 52.4 (elevated) · range 46.3–79.2 · mid-range

category	today	Δ since start
Valuation	94.2	+3.4
Fundamentals	6	-9.0
Supply chain	17	-54.6
Macro & Fed	35.7	-16.0
Crowding	99.6	+0.6
AI demand	69.9	+69.9

What this is — and what it isn't

Cassandra is a transparent conditions monitor, not a crash predictor. It blends six real-data categories — valuation (Shiller CAPE & the Fed-model risk premium), fundamentals (semis margins, growth, PEG), supply chain (hyperscaler capex & GPU rents), macro / Fed (VIX, credit spreads, the yield curve, financial conditions), crowding (equal- vs cap-weight breadth, semis concentration) and AI demand — into one gauge. Each sub-score is ranked against real history or scored by a transparent, documented rule; weights are a judgement (valuation 22% · fundamentals 18% · supplychain 14% · macro 22% · crowding 12% · adoption 12%), not fitted. A category without enough data is shown as "building history" and excluded — never given a fabricated score.

AI-demand caveat: the China-vs-US panel is the OpenRouter daily call/token share — real inference traffic, by model origin (Chinese labs vs US/West), through one major router. It is a true usage cross-section but not all inference: it excludes first-party API traffic (direct OpenAI, Anthropic, Google) and self-hosted deployments. CAPE is a broad-market GAAP measure; the semis fundamentals are current snapshots with a multi-quarter margin trend.